ByThe Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is expected to collect Rs1,225 billion in tax revenue during December 2024, falling short of the assigned target of Rs1,373 billion by approximately Rs148 billion. Provisional tax collection figures are anticipated to be finalized by the end of December 31, 2024.
For the first half of the fiscal year 2024-25 (July-December), the FBR was tasked with collecting Rs6,009 billion. However, the estimated collection stands at Rs5,500 billion, indicating a cumulative shortfall of Rs509 billion.
This follows a pattern of missed monthly targets, with December marking the fourth consecutive month of falling short in the current fiscal year.
Performance for the First Five Months
Between July and November 2024, the FBR collected Rs4,295 billion against the assigned target of Rs4,639 billion, reflecting a deficit of Rs344 billion.
A breakdown of monthly collections so far highlights the challenges in meeting revenue targets:
- July 2024: Rs996 billion collected against a target of Rs985 billion (surplus of Rs11 billion).
- August 2024: Rs782 billion collected against a target of Rs898 billion (shortfall of Rs116 billion).
- September 2024: Rs1,106 billion collected against a target of Rs1,098 billion (surplus of Rs8 billion).
- October 2024: Rs878 billion collected against a target of Rs980 billion (shortfall of Rs102 billion).
- November 2024: Rs855 billion collected against a target of Rs1,003 billion (shortfall of Rs148 billion).
Projected Cumulative Shortfall
The total revenue shortfall in tax collection for the first half of FY2024-25 is expected to reach around Rs500 billion.
Implications and Observations
Despite exceeding targets in two months, the consistent shortfalls in other months indicate a challenging revenue environment for the FBR. With increasing reliance on taxation reforms and compliance measures, the focus remains on addressing these gaps to meet annual targets and support Pakistan’s fiscal health.
Further updates will be shared once the final figures for December 2024 are confirmed.
